Seminars in Nephrology
Volume 29, Issue 6 , Pages 551-554 , November 2009

The Aging Pandemic: Demographic Changes in the General and End-Stage Renal Disease Populations

  • Paul W. Eggers, PhD

      Affiliations

    • Corresponding Author InformationAddress reprint requests to Paul W. Eggers, Program Director for Kidney and Urology Epidemiology, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, 6707 Democracy Blvd, Room 615, Bethesda, MD 20892

References 

  1. Edwards BK, Howe HL, Ries LAG, Thun MJ, Rosenberg HM, Yancik R, et al. Annual report to the nation on the status of cancer, 1973-1999, featuring implications of age and aging on U.S. cancer burden. Cancer. 2002;94:2766–2792
  2. Boyle JP, Honeycutt AA, Narayan KM, Hoerger TJ, Geiss LS, Hong C, et al. Projection of diabetes burden through 2050. Diabetes Care. 2001;24:1936–1940
  3. Narayan KM, Boyle JP, Geiss LS, Saaddine JB, Thompson TJ. Impact of recent increase in incidence on future diabetes burden. Diabetes Care. 2006;29:2114–2116
  4. Mainous AG, Baker R, Koopman RJ, Saxema S, Diaz VA, Everett CJ, et al. Impact of the population at risk of diabetes on projections of diabetes burden in the United States: an epidemic on the way. Diabetologia. 2007;50:934–940
  5. Litman HJ, McKinlay JB. The future magnitude of urological symptoms in the USA: projections using the Boston Area Community Health survey. BJU Intl. 2007;100:820–825
  6. Burge R, Dawson-Hughes B, Solomon DH, Wong JB, King A, Tosteson A. Incidence and economic burden of osteoporosis-related fractures in the United States, 2005-2025. J Bone Miner Res. 2007;22:465–475
  7. Dixon T, Shaw M, Ebrahim S, Dieppe P. Trends in hip and knee joint replacement: socioeconomic inequalities and projections of need. Ann Rheum Dis. 2004;63:825–830
  8. Lakdwalla D, Goldman DP, Bhattacharya MD, Hurd MD, Joyce GF, Panis CWA. Forecasting the nursing home population. Med Care. 2003;41:8–20
  9. Kildemoes HW, Christiansen T, Gyrd-Hansen D, Kristiansen IS, Andersen M. The impact of population ageing on future Danish drug expenditures. Health Policy. 2006;75:298–311
  10. Garrett N, Marinin EM. The boomers are coming: a total cost of care model of the impact of population aging on the cost of chronic conditions in the United States. Disease Management. 2007;10:51–59
  11. Szczech LA, Lazar IL. Projecting the United States ESRD population: issues regarding treatment of patients with ESRD. Kidney Int Suppl. 2004;90:S3–S7
  12. Manton KG. Recent declines in chronic disability in the elderly U.S. population: risk factors and future dynamics. Annu Rev Public Health. 2008;29:91–113
  13. Manton KG, Lamb VL, Gu X. Medicare cost effects of recent disability trends in the elderly: future implications. J Aging Health. 2007;19:359–382
  14. Dormont B, Grignon M, Juber H. Health expenditure growth: reassessing the threat of ageing. Health Economics. 2006;15:947–963
  15. Stock GB. The pitfalls of planning of demographic change. Ann N Y Acad Sci. 2004;1019:546–551
  16. Chernichovsky D, Markowitz S. Aging and aggregate costs of medical care: conceptual and policy issues. Health Econ. 2004;13:543–562
  17. Eggers PW, Connerton R, McMullan M. The Medicare experience with end-stage renal disease: trends in incidence, prevalence, and survival. Health Care Financing Rev. 1984;5:69–88
  18. Iglehard JK. Funding the end-stage renal disease program. N Engl J Med. 1982;306:492–496
  19. Kolata GB. NMC thrives selling dialysis. Science. 1980;208:25
  20. Xue JL, Ma JZ, Louis TA, Collins AJ. Forecast of the number of patients with end-stage renal disease in the United States to the year 2010. J Am Soc Nephrol. 2001;12:2753–2758
  21. US Renal Data System. USRDS 2003 annual data report. Bethesda: National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases; 2003;
  22. Gilbertson DT, Liu J, Xue JL, Louis TA, Solid GA, Ebben JP, et al. Projecting the number of patients with end-stage renal disease in the United States to the year 2015. J Am Soc Nephrol. 2005;16:3736–3741
  23. US Renal Data System. USRDS 2007 annual data report. Bethesda: National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases; 2007;
  24. US Renal Data System. USRDS 2008 annual data report. Bethesda: National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases; 2008;
  25. Day JC. Population projections of the United States by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin: 1995 to 2020, U.S. Bureau of the Census, current population reports, P25-1130. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office; 1996;
  26. Coresh JC, Selvin E, Stevens LA, Manzi J, Kusek JW, Eggers PW, et al. Prevalence of chronic kidney disease in the United States. JAMA. 2007;298:2038–2047
  27. Foley RN, Murray AM, Herzog CA, McBean AM, Eggers PW, Collins AJ. Chronic kidney disease and the risk for cardiovascular disease, renal replacement therapy, and death in the United States Medicare population, 1998 to 1999. J Am Soc Nephrol. 2005;16:489–495
  28. O'Hare AM, Choi AI, Bertenthal D, Bacchetti P, Garg AX, Kaufman JS, et al. Age affects outcomes in chronic kidney disease. J Am Soc Nephrol. 2007;18:2758–2765
  29. Erikson BO, Ingebretsen OC. The progression of chronic kidney disease: a 10 year population based study of the effects of gender and age. Kidney Int. 2006;69:375–382
  30. Choukroun G, Itakura Y, Albouze G, Christophe J, Man NK, Grunfeld JP, et al. Factors influencing progression of renal failure in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease. J Am Soc Nephrol. 1995;6:1634–1642
  31. Coggins CH, Lewis JB, Caggiula AW, Castaldo LS, Klahr S, Wang S. Differences between women and men with chronic renal disease. Nephrol Dial Transplant. 1998;13:1430–1437
  32. Neugarten J, Acharya A, Silbiger SR. Effect of gender on the progression of nondiabetic renal disease: a meta-analysis. J Am Soc Nephrol. 2000;11:319–329
  33. Berg UB. Differences in decline in GFR with age between males and females, reference data on clearances of inulin and PAH in potential kidney donors. Nephrol Dial Transplant. 2006;21:2577–2582
  34. Hsu CY, Lin L, Shlipak MG. The incidence of end-stage is increasing faster than the prevalence of chronic renal insufficiency. Ann Intern Med. 2004;141:95–101
  35. Hsu CY, Go AS, McCulloch CE, Darbinian J, Iribarren C. Exploring secular trends in the likelihood of receiving treatment for end-stage renal disease. Can J Am Soc Nephrol. 2007;2:81–88

PII: S0270-9295(09)00143-0

doi: 10.1016/j.semnephrol.2009.07.001

Seminars in Nephrology
Volume 29, Issue 6 , Pages 551-554 , November 2009